Donald Trump Faces Lengthening 2024 Odds Following Midterms

Posted on: November 15, 2022, 09:01h. 

Last updated on: November 15, 2022, 06:31h.

Former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday night from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach. But the “big announcement” that he teased ahead of last week’s election has lost a bit of its impact following the GOP’s underwhelming midterms performance.

Trump’s odds of winning a second term in the White House continue to lengthen. That’s after the Republicans’ forecast red wave went out to sea and Democrats fared much better than expected. Some political observers believe a divided Republican Party, with some remaining loyal to Trump while others want to move forward, cost the GOP control of the Senate.

While the House of Representatives is still expected to go in the GOP’s favor, Trump’s influence might have cost his party numerous gubernatorial races. That’s after several of his hand-picked candidates failed to attract a majority.

“In certain ways, yesterday’s election was somewhat disappointing,” Trump acknowledged on November 9.

Losing Streak

Kari Lake in Arizona is the latest Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate to see defeat in the 2022 election. Lake is a former local television news anchor who gained the former president’s backing for the Arizona governor’s office after she supported his claims that the 2020 election was “stolen” and “rigged.” She has been deemed the loser in her race against Democrat Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.

Despite the 2022 defeats, as well as some rumblings among Republicans suggesting that it might be time for the party to distance itself from the former president, Trump is expected to press forward with his next presidential campaign. Trump had hoped to use the midterms as a springboard to vault his next White House run, but is instead now facing blame for the 2022 letdown.

Hopefully, tomorrow will turn out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country!” Trump said Monday on his social media network Truth Social.

Though last week at least temporarily lengthened Trump’s 2024 odds, political bettors on PredictIt have slowly returned to backing the 45th president.

Trump’s shares of winning the 2024 US presidential election dropped from 32 cents the night before the midterms to a low of 19 cents the morning after Election Day last week. His shares have since rebounded to 26 cents. That trails only DeSantis at 34 cents. President Joe Biden is at 25 cents.

Trump Wants Early Start

GOP brass successfully convinced Trump to delay his 2024 announcement until after the midterms. With that decision now potentially costing him momentum, Trump has apparently rebuffed additional calls to forestall his presidential campaign until the Georgia runoff is settled next month.

Trump, eager to return to the spotlight, is hoping to stave off a long list of potential challengers, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who cruised to reelection last week and is now being urged by many in his party to run for president,” wrote Associate Press White House reporter Jill Colvin.

PredictIt’s market asking if Trump will file to run for president before 2023 has “Yes” shares trading at 85 cents. Trump remains tied with DeSantis at 41 cents as the betting front-runner to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2024.