President Trump Positive COVID Test Could Hurt Reelection Chances, PredictIt Shares Assert
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President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump disclosed early today that they have both tested positive for COVID-19.
The startling revelation comes just a month before voters head to the polls, and for the incumbent, his contracting of the coronavirus only further worsens his reelection odds.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s PredictIt shares of winning on November 3 and becoming the 46th president of the United States hit all-time highs following Tuesday night’s debate. The former Vice President’s shares eclipsed 60 cents for the first time.
With Trump positive for the coronavirus, Biden’s shares ticked even higher, reaching a record 67 cents just hours after the President shared the breaking diagnosis on Twitter.
“We will begin our quarantine and recovery process together,” the President tweeted. “We will get through this TOGETHER!”
Along with the Democrat’s 2020 odds improving overall in the immediate hours following the Trump news, Biden flipped three key states on PredictIt from red to blue: North Carolina (57 cents), Florida (56 cents), and Ohio (52 cents).
Betting on Biden
With Trump likely off the campaign trail for at least two weeks, bettors are buying up stock in a Biden victory.
At bookmaker William Hill, Biden’s odds of taking the White House yesterday were at 8/13 (implied odds 61.9 percent). This morning, those odds have shortened to 4/7 (implied odds 63.64 percent).
With a rush of activity on the challenger, most UK books, where betting on politics is legal, decided to suspend their 2020 US presidential lines.
Despite a contentious debate only days earlier in which the President questioned Biden’s intellect and said, “There’s nothing smart about you,” and the Democrat countered by calling the President a “clown,” “liar,” and “The worst President America has ever had,” Biden wished the President well.
“Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery,” Biden said in a tweet. “We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the President and his family.”
Trump’s Health
At the age of 74, and clinically obese, markets regarding Trump finishing out his first term have also changed.
“Will Donald Trump complete his first term?” saw “Yes” shares go from 90 cents to below 80. “Will Trump drop out of the presidential election before 11/1?” saw “Yes” shares climb four cents, though they still remain rather low at 14 cents.
The President has consistently downplayed the threat of COVID-19, most recently poking fun at Biden for wearing face masks.
I don’t wear masks like him,” Trump said of Biden at Tuesday’s debate. “Every time you see him, he’s got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from me, and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”
The White House said the President and first lady are experiencing “mild symptoms.” Vice President Mike Pence tested negative this morning, as did Biden.
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