Long-awaited relief for Macau gambling market

The 39 casinos in Macau could have reportedly begun to emerge from their very long coronavirus-induced downturn after recently recording a significant improvement in aggregated average daily rate to approximately $10.39 million.

According to a report from GGRAsia citing a filing from international brokerage Sanford C Bernstein Limited, the figure for the first six days of the month is almost double the around $5.38 million chalked up for the entirety of August and comes as officials in neighboring Guangdong Province began once again issuing mainland visitors with Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) and group travel visas.

Relaxed revival:

Macau’s aggregated gross gaming revenues have contracted by 81.6% year-on-year since the start of January to about $4.55 billion largely due to the initiation of a range travel restrictions designed to help stop the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the source detailed that these constraints are slowly being lifted with average daily visitor numbers having recently climbed by some 192% when compared with early-August’s tally to hit approximately 14,600.

Fuzzy forecasting:

Sanford C Bernstein Limited reportedly also declared that any predictions regarding Macau’s longer-term casino prospects ‘remain largely educated guesses at this time’ owing to ‘constantly-changing conditions altering expectations’ although it expects aggregated gross gaming revenues for September to reach in the region of $414.86 million, which would represent a year-on-year decline of roughly 85%.

Reportedly read the filing from Sanford C Bernstein Limited…

“With a visa issuance timetable now in place, we believe the drivers of recovery will be the confidence levels of customers to travel and spend, opening up Hong Kong to Macau travel and an increase in frequency of air transportation within greater China to airports in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau to facilitate long-haul travel.”

Coming concerns:

The brokerage moreover announced that Beijing is set to begin issuing IVS and group travel visas for Macau on a nationwide basis from September 23, which ‘should boost visitation by mid-October’, although casinos are due to be made to wait a bit longer for the up to 15% of their business that annually arrives from nearby Hong Hong.

Sanford C Bernstein Limited’s filing reportedly read…

“Hong Kong’s citywide coronavirus testing program could see over four million Hong Kong residents tested by mid-September. Once that occurs and cases drop to close to zero, we should see the city added to the mainland China-Macau travel bubble, which will be an immediate boost to revenues.”