Posted on: June 29, 2022, 08:56h.
Last updated on: June 29, 2022, 11:55h.
Former President Donald Trump continues to see his GOP backing for the 2024 presidential election wane, as the party’s core shifts its support to its rising national star, Florida. Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Casino.org earlier this week reported on DeSantis overtaking Trump in online political betting markets for the 2024 Republican Party’s presidential ticket. With Democratic Party leaders also fleeing President Joe Biden, and that party’s presidential ticket seemingly up for grabs, DeSantis is now the general election betting favorite.
Betting exchange Smarkets says DeSantis, who gained national notoriety among the GOP for his far-less restrictive handling of the pandemic compared with Democratic-run states, is now the 2024 front-runner. Smarkets bettors give DeSantis about a 22% chance of becoming the 47th president of the United States.
“Donald Trump’s stock has been on the slide in recent weeks, and the January 6 congressional hearings may be having some impact,” Smarkets Head of Political Markets Matthew Shaddick told Casino.org. “The continued rise of Ron DeSantis has now resulted in the Republican becoming the favorite to win the 2024 election.”
Trump is in a close second, his chances of winning another term at 21%. Biden is in third at 15%, and VP Kamala Harris is fourth at 6%.
Another Governor Surging
With the 2024 Democratic Party race clouding, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is increasingly becoming a serious contender. Though Smarkets bettors currently only give him a roughly 5% chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee, that number has more than doubled over the past week from just 2%.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are both going backwards in bettors’ 2024 estimations,” Shaddick continued. “One possible challenger could be California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has been steadily moving up in the betting market and could soon become the most likely candidate to rival the leading duo.”
PredictIt bettors are in agreement with the Smarkets lines. Just 30 days ago, the PredictIt odds suggested Biden had about a 40% chance of being his party’s presidential nominee for a second time. Newsom’s line was at only 5%.
Biden’s odds have since dipped to 36%, while Newsom’s stock has climbed to 13%, the same line as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. PredictIt bettors still have Harris a bit likelier at 17%.
DeSantis 2024 Favorite
PredictIt’s 2024 presidential election market also has DeSantis the overall favorite to occupy the White House come early 2025. And as the Florida governor rises, the state’s most notable resident continues to see his stock drop.
PredictIt bettors are running from a Trump 2024 victory. The sell-off has resulted in Trump’s 2024 odds dropping from an implied chance of 30% in April to less than 25% this week.
UK oddsmakers that are allowed to take traditional bets on political outcomes now have DeSantis and Trump the 2024 co-front-runners at 3/1. Biden is at 5/1 and Harris is at 10/1.
The British bookmakers have not yet seen much action on Newsom, which is keeping the California governor’s 2024 odds long at 50/1.